Impatient betting enthusiasts are often tempted by the option that sports betting operators recently introduced – to close their bets before the end of the match.
While it may seem like a good option sometimes, you actually fall into the bookies’ trap by using it.
The relatively new trend in the world of sports betting, which began several years ago, is called “Cash Out”. This option is offered to you by bookmakers, so you can guarantee winning profits even before the event is over or minimize losses if things do not develop as expected. The truth, however, is that this option makes the bookies richer.
Let’s see why
First, let’s explain what is closing a bet with an example. Let’s say a football game is developing in favor of the bettor. During a live bet, the bettor can finalize the bet even before the game ends. Of course, he would get less money than he would receive if he waited for the last referee’s signal. How much less the money depends on the odds at which he decides to close the bet.
In the opposite case, if the selected team has difficulties and is already losing by a goal or two, the bettor can minimize the losses by closing the bet. Again, the amount of the stake when closing the bet depends on the odds at the time of closing and obviously, the bettor can not save his whole bet.
For example, let’s say you have bet 10 euros at 3.00 live betting odds, and the same odds are now down to 2.00. Hurray! The option to close a bet offers you to get 15 euros (instead of 30) at the moment, ensuring you earn per second. No more stressful situations at the last minute. However, if the odds have not fallen but have risen to 6.00, the bookmaker gives you the opportunity to take 6 before it’s too late and you lose your 10 euro bet. This way, it looks like you’re saving 4 euros.
Sports betting fans are easily tempted by the Bet Close option. Known for their impatience, bettors want to make a profit as soon as possible, while being afraid of losing money. Both tendencies push them to closure and there are people who are even addicted to it.
So, where is the catch?
Upon closing, you receive less than the fair value.
In the example above, the lucky bettor has the opportunity to get 15 euros after the odds have dropped to 2.00. That would be the cost of a fair closure. Fair, by calculating it with this formula:
((X*(Y-1)) – (X*(Z-1)))/Z
X = the original bet
Y = Original Initial Odds
Z = closure Odds
Still, the bookmaker will actually offer 13 euros to the bettor instead of 15! The difference goes directly into the bookmaker’s pocket.
Taking advantage of the opportunity to close a bet, you effectively agree to bet on the other two possible outcomes of the match other than your first choice.
Thus, if you originally bet for a home win, by closing the bet you actually bet on double chance X2. So you have already bet on all possible exits.
This is basically wrong because bookmakers never give 100% of the money to players. In general, bookmakers give 90% of the pledges as prizes. The remaining 10% is the operator’s profit margin. Therefore, closing the bet causes you to place a debilitating bet on the same match!
While on the first bet bettors invest their money at a theoretically negative EV (expected value), they are now attracted to the same conditions, but this time hid behind the attractiveness of the Cash Out service.
Pay attention to this. Your initial bet of 10 euros is, say, made at a 10% advantage for the bookmaker, which means that the fair odds should be 3.40 instead of 3.00. This is equal to a 1 euro long-term net loss. Going into the Cash Out trap, you put one more bet at a 10% advantage for the bookmaker. This time the bet is hypothetically 15 euros.
Summarizing all this, the net loss, in the long run, becomes 1 + 1,50 = 2,50 euros.
With other amounts, the bookmaker has doubled his winnings by closing the bet!
Do you assume the bookmaker was thinking about your bank when he introduced new options?
Their goal is to keep you happy while betting on their platforms. By offering you the option of Cash Out, they want you to spend more time on their platform and spend more money on it. And they successfully fulfill their purpose.
Take advantage of the Cash Out option by not using it!